The volume of gasoline displacement due to EVs is growing as electric vehicles become more dependable, convenient, cost-effective to operate, safe, and enjoyable to drive than conventional vehicles. One of the main reasons behind the introduction of EVs is to reduce the use of polluting petroleum products. As the number of electric vehicles on the road continues to increase, gasoline consumption is expected to decline gradually. The impact of EVs on gasoline demand is already becoming noticeable. For example, about 323 million gallons of gas were displaced in 2021, which was 0.25% of the total. By 2021, that number grew to 690 million gallons. And globally, by 2024 the number reached a staggering 1.3 million barrels a day (about 56 million gal/day).
Some governments and media pay considerable attention to the passenger vehicle industry, even though it only accounts for about a quarter of international oil demand. Most of this can be attributed to the idea that a rapid switch from conventional oil-powered cars to electric vehicles (EVs) is both possible and necessary in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality in cities. Numerous studies have been published on the impact of electric vehicles on oil demand.
Gasoline displacement statistics in the US
As of the 2018 data report by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 323 million gallons of gas were displaced that year. That is about 0.25% of total US gasoline consumption of that year. We can see a growth in this trend as displacement amount grew 42% from 2017 to 2018. By 2018, the amount of gas displaced was double the amount of 2016.
During the year 2013, pure EVs and Plug-in hybrids both displaced about equal volumes of gasoline. By 2018, pure EVs were dominating by being the root cause of two-thirds of the total displacement. By 2021, the amount of gasoline displaced crossed 690 million gallons, battery EVs being the reason for nearly 70% of that. If you look at the data from the Department of Energy, you can see that the electricity consumption of Plug-in EVs rose from 1.44 TWh in 2016 to 2.85 TWh in 2018, that’s a 1.41 TWh increase. That means EV electricity consumption increased by about 1.41 billion kWh between 2016 and 2018.
Gasoline displacement statistics and future predictions
This is what IHS Markit’s “Inflections” base case says would happen. If we exclude the COVID pandemic scenario, the US oil and gas demand would be lower than it is now. In 2019, there were 20.3 million barrels of oil per day. In 2050, there might be 15.3 million b/d. After hitting a high point in 2036, global oil demand is expected to decline. There are a lot of people who say that government policies and EV incentive programs is the cause of this steady gasoline consumption decline. They have a big impact on the outcome of oil and gas projects. It shows that there is a lot of uncertainty about how quickly electric cars will become popular.
How much gasoline has been displaced due to EVs?
According to some reports, there were no passenger vehicle forecasts that predicted big changes in oil demand over the next 25 years. After a peak, demand in many cases stayed the same.
According to some estimates, the demand for this type of business will drop significantly. Almost by the year 2040 under a two-degree carbon scenarios. Even though this may be true in some cases. Demand will not fall until 2020, and there will be little to no drop until 2030. The fact that there are fewer and more expensive alternatives to oil in the petrochemical, aviation, or freight transport sectors could make it hard for people to drive less.
The rate at which demand rises is very important. If the world doesn’t use a lot of oil quickly, policymakers need to understand that they need to invest in new oil sources. In order to avoid shortages and the price spikes that come with them. In addition, the review found that forecasters had very different ideas about what was causing demand.
Factors affecting gasoline displacement
It’s expected that population growth will be much slower on the two-degree carbon trajectory. And electric car sales and use are expected to be much higher than in the other predictions. However, it’s possible that these carbon scenarios show what we need to do to keep the temperature rise to two degrees. When you think about what is likely to happen, you don’t think about what forecasters say. In other forecasts, EV use was much lower than the average, as a way to show that changes in the passenger vehicle industry will be gradual and slow, rather than disruptive.
If electric cars are not widely used, demographic changes and economic growth will continue to slow down oil demand growth over the long term, even if EVs are not widely used. In developing countries, rising income and urbanization are two forces that work against each other. In two-degree carbon projections, lower population growth is a common assumption. This means that oil demand in the transportation sector will also go down. A two-degree carbon scenario doesn’t have any clear effect on the growth of the economy, though. It’s possible to make a lot of different assumptions about how the economy will grow. Which can either make or break the decline in oil demand.
There are two big unknowns when it comes to passenger vehicle oil demand: changes in technology and government policies that encourage the use of electric cars (EVs). Another factor responsible for this big EV switch is the increasing popularity and accessibility of EV charging stations.
Conclusion
It is also possible to reduce oil demand more quickly through government policies such as incentives or mandates for electric vehicles or other alternatives. The effects of automation and the growth of mobile services on oil demand, on the other hand, are less clear. Autonomous vehicle fleets that can be summoned on demand could lower transportation costs and make it more convenient, resulting in increased demand for travel and energy. However, autonomous vehicle fleets may be powered by electricity due to the lower operating costs of EVs compared to conventional vehicles and the possibility that city governments may mandate the use of electricity for environmental reasons. More research is needed to determine how autonomous vehicles and new mobility models will affect oil demand. But one thing is crystal clear, the volume of gasoline being displaced by EVs are steadily inclining.
Frequently Asked Questions About Gasoline Displacement and EVs
What is gasoline displacement due to EVs?
When someone drives an EV instead of a gas car, the gasoline that car would have burned goes unused. Add up all those unburned gallons across the entire EV fleet and you get the gasoline displacement figure. In the US, Argonne National Laboratory tracks it in gallons. The IEA reports the global number in barrels per day or liters of gasoline equivalent.
How much gasoline have EVs displaced in the US?
The 2021 displacement figure was about 690 million gallons. Battery EVs were responsible for about 70% of that total per Argonne National Laboratory. For context, in 2018 it was only 323 million gallons, and by 2020 it had reached roughly 500 million. Between 2011 and 2020, US plug-in vehicles cumulatively displaced 1.9 billion gallons of gasoline. That sounds like a lot until you consider total US gasoline consumption in 2024 was 137.84 billion gallons. That said, people still filling up gas can check which gas station has the cheapest gas price in that location.
Are battery EVs or plug-in hybrids displacing more gasoline?
Battery EVs displace most gasoline. Through 2013, both EVs and plug-in hybrids displaced roughly equal volumes. However, by 2018, battery EVs were doing over two-thirds of the work and by 2020, 72%. The split keeps moving in one direction as battery EV sales grow faster than plug-in hybrid sales in most markets.
How much oil are EVs displacing globally?
The IEA reported that global EV oil displacement crossed 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024. That was up 30% from 2023. To put that in context, the IEA compared it to Japan’s entire transport sector oil demand. BloombergNEF’s estimate for 2025 is higher at 2.3 million barrels per day, though their number includes all vehicle types (cars, buses, two-wheelers and trucks), not just passenger cars. Ember’s more conservative 2025 estimate sits at 1.7 million barrels per day.
When is peak oil demand expected?
There is no consensus on this. The IEA’s analysis has suggested road transport oil demand could peak around 2025 in certain policy scenarios. IHS Markit’s pre-pandemic forecast put global peak demand around 2036. OPEC projects continued growth of about 1.3 million barrels per day through 2025 and 2026 and doesn’t agree with the peak demand framing at all. The 0.6 million barrel per day gap between the highest and lowest 2025 forecasts gives you a sense of how divided the major forecasters remain.
How much oil will EVs displace by 2030?
The IEA’s 2025 Global EV Outlook puts the estimate at more than 5 million barrels a day. This projection is based on its Stated Policies Scenario. It is also worth noting that the 2024 report had projected around 6 million barrels per day for the same scenario. That downward revision of nearly 1 million barrels per day matters, because it reflects slower-than-expected adoption in the US and a heavier weighting toward China, where per-vehicle oil consumption is lower. BloombergNEF’s projection is 5.3 million barrels per day. China’s EV fleet accounts for roughly half of the total in both estimates.
Do EV incentive programs actually affect gasoline displacement?
The US recently ran a natural experiment on this and the simple answer is yes, the EV incentive programs do affect gasoline displacement. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired in September 2025. Within one quarter, new EV sales fell 28%, dropping market share from 10.6% to 5.8%, according to Cox Automotive data. China ran the opposite experiment in 2024 with a vehicle trade-in incentive that drew 6.6 million applicants, 60% of whom bought EVs, per the IEA. Government policy is consistently identified as the single largest swing variable in every serious adoption forecast.
Will EV adoption eliminate oil demand entirely?
Not at all. Currently, there are no serious forecast projects that it will. Aviation, petrochemicals and heavy freight use enormous amounts of oil and lack viable replacements at commercial scale. Road transport accounts for roughly half of global oil consumption. EVs are changing the trajectory in that segment, but the other half of demand has no EV equivalent on the horizon. Total global oil use stays well above zero in every published scenario through 2050.
How does EV adoption in developing markets affect gasoline displacement?
Rising incomes push car ownership up in developing economies, which offsets some of the displacement gains from EVs replacing gas cars. But the growth numbers in some of these markets are large enough to matter on their own. Southeast Asian EV sales grew nearly 50% in 2024 to reach 9% of all car sales in the region. In Brazil, EV sales more than doubled to 125,000 in the same year. In both Brazil and Thailand, affordable Chinese EV imports accounted for 85% of electric car sales, per the IEA. These markets are a few years behind China and Europe, but the trajectory is similar.
Are electric scooters and two-wheelers displacing more oil than cars?
Currently, yes. This is probably the most overlooked number in the whole displacement conversation. BloombergNEF’s 2025 data shows electric two- and three-wheelers are displacing more oil globally than passenger EVs. The reason is scale: developing Asian economies have hundreds of millions of these vehicles and electrification rates are high. Passenger cars are expected to take over as the larger displacement source by the end of the decade as bigger EVs gain share in China, Europe and India.
Aaron Marshall grew up in a house where cars were never just transportation. Weekend projects, road trips, heated opinions on engine specs at dinner. That stuff never left him. He joined Way in 2023 and has been writing about cars and what it actually costs to own one ever since.
